Starmer's Allies Initiate 'Stop Andy Burnham' Drive to Prevent Manchester Mayor's Commons Comeback

Loyalists of Labour leader Keir Starmer have reportedly kicked off a concerted effort to prevent Andy Burnham, the Labour Greater Manchester Mayor, from making a comeback to the House of Commons. This action follows the resignation of a Manchester MP, which has triggered an impending byelection.

Serious Obstacles in the Candidate Selection Process

A number of figures on the party's ruling national executive committee (NEC) have reportedly suggested it would be highly challenging for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the candidate selection procedure. This is primarily due to the significant number of supporters of the Prime Minister on the committee who are keen to head off any future leadership challenge.

The party apparatus is said to have sprung into action following the revelation of the MP's planned resignation, with officials and MPs voicing warnings about the considerable expense and political risk of a subsequent mayoral race in Greater Manchester.

The Mayor's Aspirations and Party Concerns

Andy Burnham has made no secret of his national ambitions. Last year, he prompted consternation in Downing Street and among senior ministers when he stated that many MPs had urged him to run for the party leadership.

There has long been speculation that he is aiming for a return to parliament to possibly contest the party leadership should a contest to Sir Keir emerge. However, allies of the Greater Manchester Mayor have cautioned against exaggerating the level of any planning, suggesting he is deeply committed to his current role and would solely re-enter Westminster if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," one ally said.

Current Climate and Public Approval

Against a backdrop of polls suggesting Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's fate at the next election, Andy Burnham stands out as the sole prominent Labour personality with favourable ratings with the public.

If Mr. Burnham choose to stand, multiple obstacles stand in his way. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the chances are not in his favour—and then win the byelection against competition from Reform and pro-Gaza independents, all before any possible bid for the leadership.

Efforts to Block Burnham

Senior Labour figures have said that a "Block Burnham" operation is already in progress, with the party's organisation being closely managed by senior aides of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister personally commented that the byelection process was in its "early stages" and urged his MPs to cease discussion of possible contests for the leadership.

Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's resignation was confirmed, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Financial and Political Dangers

NEC members have reportedly pointed to not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could divert around £500,000 in campaign funds from other key electoral battles across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," a figure stated.

A number of sources also shared concerns about Reform UK attempting to fill any vacancy created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant political win for them.

Role of the Unions and Democratic Concerns

Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to run. It is also possible the body could impose an all-female shortlist to block his nomination.

Yet, a supporter counselled against assuming the NEC would automatically block his candidacy, despite Sir Keir's team is largely believed to control it.

The trade unions occupy a sizable number of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are for now keeping their counsel, sources suggested they would be uncomfortable with anything perceived as interference from Downing Street.

The leader of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

By-election Battle

The constituency in question holds a considerable Labour lead. However, Reform is expected to mount a significant campaign, capitalising on support in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on firmer ground in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter a challenge from pro-Gaza independents.

Should Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to launch a bid for the leadership, a hurdle that is not guaranteed given he is regarded with caution by a number of on the parliamentary party.

The resigning MP confirmed he was resigning due to deteriorating mental health, which had made it untenable for him to carry on in his role. He also remains subject to a parliamentary standards investigation concerning his membership in an inappropriate online group.